January 12, (THEWILL) – For former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir el-Rufai, who is at the centre of an ongoing national political realignment on the platform of the Social Democratic Party, SDP, history appears to be repeating itself, though on a broader and uncertain scale.
In 2022, a few months to the presidential primary of his party, the governing All Progressives Congress, APC, he overlooked his long history of hostility with President Bola Tinubu and played a pivotal role in ensuring that 12 out of the party’s 14 state governors from the North supported the former Lagos State governor and all seven Northwest governors influenced their delegates to support the President’s emergence as the party’s presidential candidate at its national convention held in July.
The governing APC felt threatened by the main opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party’s plan to regain power by fielding a Northern presidential candidate in Atiku Abubakar and it was scheming to scuttle that plan. According to el-Rufai, some governors from the North, including himself, were approached by the leaders of the party to run on the party’s ticket. He refused. His Katsina counterpart, Amini Masari, doing a second term like him, also refused. Professor Babagana Zulum of Borno State preferred to rerun for a second term as Borno State governor. Only the then Governor of Jigawa State, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar obeyed and picked the presidential form.
In desperation, power brokers within the party chose President of the Senate, Ahmad Lawan, whom the National Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, later publicly announced as the anointed candidate, even as presidential spokesperson, Garba Shehu issued a face-saving statement that President Muhammadu Buhari had no preferred candidate.
The power of the Tinubu’s formidable political network across the country to deliver him, his ‘life ambition’ for the presidency was solid, but el-Rufai, with whom he had had a running battle, having reportedly accused him of blocking his path to the presidency earlier, alongside former President of the Senate Bukola Saraki who had publicly admitted his political differences with Tinubu at ex-Governor Rauf Aregbesola’s 63 birthday in 2020, proved decisive at a crucial moment in the president’s aspiration.
“For fairness and justice, the party must cede power to a southern candidate after eight years of a northerner as president,” el-Rufai had said alongside Masari.
The former Kaduna governor and Tinubu have since fallen apart after the failed Senate ministerial clearance of el-Rufai. The latter has become the centre of an ongoing alliance aimed at challenging the APC for the presidency in 2027.
“Former Governor Nasir-el Rufai cannot in any way be described as a political enemy of the President,” National Chairman of the Social Democratic Party, SDP, Alhaji Shehu Gabam told THEWILL in an interview on Friday.
Gabam, who in Abuja last Wednesday hosted an inter-party meeting that was attended by el-Rufai, Hamza al-Mustapha, former Chief Security Officer to late Head of State, General Sani Abacha and a PDP chieftain who was the spokesperson to Atiku Abubakar during the 2019 presidential poll, Segun Showunmi, said, “Somebody, (el-Rufai) who fought his colleagues to ensure the president emerge the candidate of his party and went ahead to campaign for his victory cannot be described as an enemy of the President. What we are trying to do is to bring about a balanced democracy and ensure that any Nigerian genuinely concerned about a stable, productive and safe country can use the instrument of our party. Our loyalty is to Nigeria and not to any individual.”
Gabam disclosed that participants are still engaging in discussions and nothing concrete has been tabled, adding that every participant has, however, agreed that, “our tragedy as a nation is leadership,” and the search is for “somebody who is nationalistic enough to transform this country,” for the good of all, irrespective of ethnicity, religion and gender.
CAN EL-RUFAI BUILD THE COALITION?
But can Nasir el-Rufai, who is at the centre of this possible coalition pull the strings? He was in power as governor and very influential within the party when he built a coalition of sorts that contributed to the President’s success. The tables have turned sharply and drastically. He is out of power, his influence within the party is unimaginable as witnessed by his failed ministerial appointment and his opponent is intimidating, if not unbeatable. What is clear is that he has reignited his differences with the president once again. And the 2027 general election may witness a comeback if he gets his coalition plan right.
Efforts to reach el-Rufai proved abortive as all his telephone lines were unreachable. Muyiwa Adekeye, his spokesperson’s phone appeared permanently on busy mode.
But Comrade James Ezema, National Publicity of the Conference of National Political Parties, CNPP, fears the opposition is currently in shambles and APC would ride smoothly to victory with little challenge in 2027. He noted that an opposition in disarray will be no match for President Tinubu in 2027.
“The APC will be a very hard nut for the opposition to crack at the 2027 presidential election,” he said in a note to this newspaper, urging the opposition that, “Unity is not just desirable; it is essential.”
According to him, “The opposition parties are currently working at cross-purposes, scheming to undo each other ahead of the 2027 presidential election. This lack of unity and focus is detrimental to the democratic process and the future of Nigeria.”
Added to that is the famed carrot and stick action that incumbents often deploy with deadly precision during electioneering.
TINUBU A HARD NUT
The CNPP deputy spokesperson may not be further from the truth. As a master political strategist, Tinubu will be difficult to defeat. Apart from controlling the largest war chest against any rival, his disarming strategy is being used to push through his reforms, however harsh on the people. Some dependable top level sources reminded this newspaper that Tinubu is more or less the first president in recent times to send budget, other requests to the National Assembly and get them answered and returned intact. “It is not about money or corruption as you would think. It is about strategy,” the source told this newspaper. “You think the man who defeated all odds, even those put on his way to victory by power brokers in his party, will now be an easy pick.? Maybe on the pages of newspapers.”
Gabam, is undisturbed about the success of a likely coalition.
Citing recent political history and the current hardship in the country, he predicted that President Tinubu would be defeated in 2027.
According to him “No president that was elected to serve four years and has issues in two years can survive. Jonathan’s opposition started within two years, and he lost the election.”
PDP chieftain, Showunmi, thinks it is too early to predict the political process ahead of the 2027 election. “What we are doing going forward is still in the belly of time. I concede that people may want to know whether the meeting will lead to a merger, an alliance within the context that is being spoken about in the country. Clearly, people should know that it will take more than the personalities that met to do any of the things that will be in the margin.
“Like minds are trying to figure out things. We will not say we have exhausted a laborious process. We have just started, and it is likely to continue and more people are likely to join,” he said.
Unlike before, when el-Rufai’s presence at two previous meetings were interpreted by his aides as having no political undertone, Showunmi disclosed that last Wednesday’s meeting was for a political purpose.
“There is no reason why citizens of this country, whatever the political divide, cannot meet. In fact, it is our shared humanity as Nigeria permits to share courtesies among ourselves. The meeting was to meet, treat and exchange ideas about multi-party democracy and the future of the country within the context of the progress, prosperity and wellness of our nation. I was there in my capacity as a PDP man, but also as a promoter of new thinking in democracy and democratic engagement and I am sure others were there too because of the passion they have for Nigeria with our governance structure in multi-party democracy,” he said.
A source in the camp of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar confided in this newspaper that what he referred to as the season of politics, “will be defined by alignment and realignment and the whole effort is geared towards ousting the APC, whether it is Obi and Atiku meeting or SDP hosting a meeting. As time goes on there will be integration and infusion among all the opposition with the common aim to take on the APC in 2027.”
Asked if he did not think it was too early to start politicking as the next general election is still two years away, he retorted that political leaders and political parties have followers and supporters who want to know where their leaders are heading so they can also align themselves too. He adds.
PERSONALITIES BUILD UP
THEWILL investigations show that el-Rufai is calculative in going about building the coalition.
Between March 26, 2024 and April 1, 2024, when he first stirred the political setting with his visit to the SDP secretariat in Abuja, he has been able to attract politicians like Senator Abubakar Gada, a chieftain of the SDP, in whose Abuja home a meeting was held recently and attended by Senator Teslim Folarin, the APC governorship candidate for Oyo State in the 2023 general election, Senator Nazif Suleiman, a chieftain of the PDP from Bauchi State, as well as Alhaji Aminu DanAgundi, a political heavyweight in Kano State.
At present, many politicians on the platform of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, which was founded by former President Muhammadu Buhari before the emergence of APC, are said to be joining the el-Rufai bandwagon. Notable among them is former Aviation Minister, Hadi Sidi Sirika and a former Ogun State Governor Ibikunle Amosun. So too is a former Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Ovie Omo-Agege.
In addition, el-Rufai has followed that up with meetings with former Military Head of State, Ibrahim Babangida, former President Olusegun Obasanjo and the immediate past President Muhammadu Buhari in their hometowns.
“What is unfolding is not new or strange to Nigerians. We are not fabricating any story. What we are talking about is what is happening in the country,” Gabam said. According to him, all political parties in the country have a major interest in winning elections. “As the National Chairman of the SDP, one of my primary goals is to win elections from the presidency down. We have no apologies for that. That is what we are doing now, to make the party available for any Nigerian who wants to use its platform to provide the desired leadership that realises that, irrespective of the party that wins the election. Nigeria is his national constituency. We cannot continue to balkanise the country along ethnic, religious and personal lines.
Continuing, Gabam said he had always reminded the President about his “long journey” in politics and what he went through, including going into exile for his political beliefs.
“He should keep the political space open for those opposed to his policies or programmes. That is simply our stand.”
Another opposing group being formed ahead of 2027, according to investigation, is one by former Kano governor, Ibrahim Shekarau.
TAX REFORM BILLS OPPOSITION
One of the issues adding fuel to the opposition, especially from the North is the tax reform bills. The bills are being sold as anti-north by many politicians across political parties in the North and they are using it as a rallying point to mobilise against President Tinubu. For instance, Borno governor, Babagana Zulum and his Nasarawa counterpart, Abdulahi Sule have expressed disagreement with contents of the bill and call for more robust engagements with stakeholders. Unlike them, however, Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State and Chairman of the PDP Governors Forum, has been very critical with the bills and urged the government to address the concerns of stakeholders, claiming that the tax reforms disproportionately favour certain regions and could exacerbate economic inequality across states.
He expressed fears that the bills were potential sources of “anarchy”, prompting the presidency to caution him to be more decorous in the choice of words and encouraged him to join others like him to take advantage of the ongoing legislative process on the bill before the National Assembly.
This strong, broad based opposition from the North has slowed down debate on the bills, fuelling concerns that the number of sitting governors from the ruling party the growing opposition are able to co-opt into their project will go a long way to determine the potency of the coalition.
None of the two presidential spokespersons contacted, Sunday Dare, Special Adviser to the President on Media and Public Communication and Daniel Bwala, Special Adviser to the President on Media and Policy Communication, responded to phone calls.
Asked for his reaction to an el-Rufai-led coalition ahead of the 2027 general election, a presidential source laughed sarcastically. “Let them continue. People need to circulate to make headlines. It is an extension of their freedom to associate and organise. The President has made it clear countless times that his major concern is to remake Nigeria with his Hope Agenda. People can meet, gather and discuss in a secured environment. So, the president is working hard to secure, reform and develop the country,” the aide said.
Gabam however issued a warning, “I am one of the founding members of the PDP in 1998. I know what the party went through. I know why PDP lost the presidential election. I know the gap that emerged in the party which APC capitalised on and defeated the PDP. These are man-made issues, and they are here with us today in this country.”
Amos Esele is the Acting Editor of THEWILL Newspaper. He has over two decades of experience on the job.
